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Investment Insight: Sticking with What Works–The World Cup, Brexit, and Investing

Adam Hoffmann
Adam Hoffmann, CFP®, AIF®

Chief Investment Officer
507.321.4004
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  Being able to apply my deep-rooted curiosity in a way that allows our clients to focus on what they truly enjoy doing the most, rather than having to worry about their financial well-being, is a wonderful thing.  

Professional Biography
Adam Hoffmann is a member of the firm's Management Team and serves as Chief Investment Officer at Carlson Capital Management. In this role, he leads the firm’s investment team in the areas of trading, investment research, portfolio design and technology support for investment applications. Adam oversees analysis and execution of investment strategies for new and existing client portfolios. He consistently communicates the firm’s investment philosophy and approach by writing for firm publications, presenting to new clients, and by participating in client meetings. Adam chairs the CCM investment committee, represents the firm with strategic partnerships in the investment community, and serves as the firm’s liaison to the Zero Alpha Group investment committee. Adam holds the Certified Financial Planner™ designation granted through the Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards and has served as a subject matter expert for the CFP Board, contributing to the development of examination questions for the CFP Certification Examination. He has also served as a presenter at industry events, providing other financial services professionals with continuing education credits in investment topics. In addition, Adam holds the Accredited Investment Fiduciary professional designation, awarded by the Center for Fiduciary Studies. The AIF designation affirms the highest in fiduciary standards of care for CCM clients.

Adam graduated cum laude with Honors Program distinction from Augsburg College, where he earned a Bachelors of Arts degree in Finance with a minor in Business Administration. While at Augsburg, Adam participated in four years of varsity football and was honored by his teammates by being elected captain for both his junior and senior seasons. He also earned all-MIAC and pre-season All-American honors.

Adam is a former member of the board of directors for the Just Food Community Co-op and past trustee for the First United Church of Christ Northfield. He and his wife Rachel grew up in Hastings, Minnesota and now live in Northfield with their two daughters.

Personal Thoughts
A strong sense of curiosity is a cornerstone to who I am and how I live my life. As a kid I used to be fascinated by how things work or why things happen the way they do. I often would take things apart to see what was happening ‘inside,’ frequently with limited success at being able to put them back together. Little has changed since then with regard to my curiosity, but fortunately my success rate of being able to put the pieces back together has greatly improved. I have always been driven by this desire to solve problems and learn more about the world around me.

There is a natural connection between this curiosity and managing portfolios. The investment world today is one of relentless change and evolution. With advances in technology, there is an endless stream of news available at our fingertips that constantly impacts asset prices, shapes investor behavior, and provides an unlimited supply of data and information to digest.

It is our job at CCM to absorb this information and provide guidance and knowledge back to our clients about what it all means and how it may it impact the world we know. The most important role we play in our clients’ financial lives is not only to understand the big picture – that is the Market and the global economic system – but to be able to translate how events and changes around the globe impact each individual client and their personal financial plan.

Being able to apply my deep-rooted curiosity in a way that allows our clients to focus on what they truly enjoy doing the most, rather than having to worry about their financial well-being, is a wonderful thing.

Adam and other members of the CCM Investment Team regularly post articles of interest including investment insights, recommended reading on timely topics, and articles on portfolio management which you can find here.

Adam Hoffmann
Adam Hoffmann, CFP®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer

Although it may not be immediately apparent depending on where you’re reading this, much of the world is currently engrossed in the World Cup. The 2018 FIFA World Cup (including 64 total matches) is being hosted in cities throughout Russia, with the championship match to be played on July 15th. The largest tournament of the world’s most popular sport often takes over the lives of its fans – typically ranking as the most watched global event every four years. As a frame of reference, while the 2018 Super Bowl between the Philadelphia Eagles and New England Patriots had over 100 million viewers worldwide, the 2014 World Cup final between Germany and Argentina had more than 1 billion viewers.1

In the coming together of nations around events like the World Cup, the hope is that within sport, great competition is coupled with great sportsmanship while each nation’s distinguishing characteristics are on display and celebrated. Of course, it’s not all hugs and handshakes. The competition is fierce and every team is striving for the ultimate goal of winning it all.

Just over two years ago, the world’s focus was similarly fixated on the outcome of a competition of a different kind. Unfortunately, the two sides contending for victory in this rivalry weren’t necessarily displaying the behaviors of good sportsmanship and weren’t acknowledging the best qualities of the other side. This battle wasn’t to be won or lost on the pitch, with the winner hoisting a trophy at the end. This competition was to be waged through the ballot box to determine the fate of the political and economic realities of modern day Europe. Perhaps that sounds hyperbolic today, but in June of 2016 those fears were real.

As a refresher, in late June of 2016, British citizens went to the polls to vote on whether they would remain members of the European Union (EU) or begin the official process of leaving the political and economic union—an act that became known to the world as Brexit. Concerns for the future of the global economy, particularly the economies most closely impacted within the EU, were as dire as anyone could imagine. Some speculated that a Brexit would push us all into a global recession deeper and longer than what we experienced in 2008. Indeed, some investors undoubtedly aligned their portfolios with their fears and went to cash (or worse) right before or right after the vote, with the hope of dodging what they expected to be an inevitable cascade of losses in stocks and bonds.

In a review of the past two-years’ performance of stock market returns for a variety of countries across the world (see illustration below), we see that an investor who sold stocks and went to cash fearing the worst, missed out on significant global equity returns. Contrary to the dire headlines of the time, the U.K.’s stock market has not crashed post-Brexit and instead has posted double-digit annualized returns. The U.S. fared well over the past 24-months, but our returns were less than half of Austria’s, which falls in the midst of the EU and Eurozone. Like any short-term window of time, predictions of market movements after Brexit varied wildly and mostly missed the mark.

For those unfortunate enough to have made drastic moves in their portfolios, rather than being ahead of the game, they may now be years behind in terms of reaching their goals. Simply stated, this experience illustrates yet again the fact that when investing, it’s best to stick with “what works,” such as the time-tested strategies of diversification and tax-optimization, while remaining disciplined during volatile markets and in the face of daunting headlines, is what will serve you well.

As we continue to face challenges in global economics and politics, we know that changes in regulations, treaties, and trade policies will impact how markets function and therefore impact outcomes for investors in the future. What we don’t know is exactly how and when those influences will present themselves and manifest into returns. While it’s too early to know what the long-term impact of what we’re experiencing in today’s global conversation of trade wars and escalating tariffs will be, we can look back to the not-so-distant past to see how markets reacted to unexpected shifts in the “rules of the game.”

Data represents past performance. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Chart is for illustrative purposes only. Specific indexes used for the illustration are as follows: MSCI Switzerland NR USD; MSCI United Kingdom NR USD; MSCI Australia NR USD; MSCI Japan NR USD; MSCI Germany NR USD; MSCI Portugal NR USD; MSCI Spain NR USD; S&P 500 TR; MSCI Korea NR USD; MSCI France NR USD; MSCI China NR USD; MSCI Austria NR USD.


1. http://www.fifa.com

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Published July 26, 2018 Topics: Brexit, Discipline, Diversification, Investment Insight, Market Conditions, Portfolio Management

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