Carlson Capital Management

Integrated Wealth Management

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Why Now? Context for Recent Volatility.

James Yaworski – Carlson Capital Management
James Michael Yaworski, CFA

Senior Investment Strategist
507.206.2804
Email James

Professional Biography
James Michael Yaworski serves as Senior Investment Strategist at Carlson Capital Management. In this role, James is responsible for investment research, portfolio management, and client investment education. James monitors and reviews client portfolios to maintain balance across asset classes, makes recommendations for portfolios when out of alignment with models, reviews daily cash positions, and places trades through the custodial trading platform. He also provides new client portfolio analysis, asset class/portfolio research and analysis, prepares and presents client education materials, and manages other activities in support of overall client portfolio management.

James is a graduate of Northern Illinois University where he earned his degree in Finance. While studying at NIU, he gained insights into his future career as part of a student-managed portfolio team. Prior to joining CCM, James’ experience included working in the roles of investment manager, project manager in investment research, and financial analyst in both large and small financial organizations. James holds the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA Charter) designation, granted by the CFA Institute, which entails a rigorous exam requirement. He also represents CCM as chair of the investment research committee of Zero Alpha Group, a national network of eight independent wealth management firms.

In addition to the research James conducts related to building strong client portfolios, he is engaged in research on approaches that enhance institutional experiences as well. His most recent work sets out to provide institutional investors with a more robust way of constructing spending policies. In a paper published in the Financial Analysts Journal, James shows how current practices create poor long-term outcomes, resulting in declining support for beneficiaries over time. He also demonstrates how current methods expose trustees to significant fiduciary risk, and how small errors in implementation can have significant long-term ramifications on portfolio growth. His in-depth and thoughtful research stems from his genuine interest in providing university, public and private foundations, and endowment trustees with an approach that not only optimizes the outcomes of their portfolio’s performance, but also addresses their fiduciary responsibility with regard to spending policies. [You can read the accepted manuscript of James' paper here.]

James enjoys being engaged in the community with Habitat for Humanity and Paws & Claws. In his free time he also enjoys golfing and playing softball. James grew up in Crystal Lake, Illinois and now resides in Rochester, Minnesota with his wife, Brittany, their three young children, and two dogs, Frankie and Jordy.

Personal Thoughts
“I can do things you cannot, you can do things I cannot; together we can do great things.”  -Mother Teresa

I have grown to appreciate the importance of collaboration and teamwork in this industry. A group of individuals, each dedicated toward expertise in their respective fields, can help to piece together the puzzle of a family’s financial lives in an incredible manner. The end result is one which truly connects the math of an individual’s personal finances with the why that makes up who they are and what they want to achieve in life.

As a member of our investment team, I enjoy every aspect of this process; from our discovery meetings where we learn about financial goals, to the analysis and construction of a financial plan, to the educational meetings where we help put all the pieces into place. Ultimately, building a relationship with clients that centers on creating financial security and establishing confidence in their financial plan is extremely gratifying.

James and other members of the CCM Investment Team regularly post articles of interest including investment insights, recommended reading on timely topics, and articles on portfolio management which you can find here.

James Michael Yaworski
James Michael Yaworski, CFA
Senior Investment Strategist

The market volatility that caused investors to experience strong losses in early 2022 has returned, driving the S&P 500 to new lows for the year on Monday, September 27. Whenever there is volatility, it’s helpful to ground the emotions we may feel in context. Here’s a brief look at how we got to this point.

Causes of Increased Inflation and Volatility

Markets entered 2022 with concerns about whether inflation was going to prove to be persistent or transitory, and two events early in the year exacerbated this important issue. First, the strict COVID-19 lockdowns put in place throughout China caused greater delays in global supply chains. This was followed by the war in Ukraine, driving global commodity prices quickly higher. As a result, the Federal Reserve has been forced to react quickly, raising the Federal Funds benchmark rate five times so far this year. Remember: this key rate was at 0% entering the year, and now sits just above 3%, a significant rise over a short period of time.1 Markets are now pricing in another 1.5% increase in the Federal Funds rate, to 4.5% by early 2023,2 and trying to understand whether the global economy can absorb these rapidly tightening financial conditions without entering a recession. Below is a visual of just how high and how quickly the Federal Funds rate has increased since March 2022.

Data represents past performance. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Table is for illustrative purposes only. Effective Funds Rate is for the time period of January 1, 2022 – September 28, 2022. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/effr

Superior Outcomes Over Time

As long-term investors, we know that the short-term noise can be emotionally stressful, even with helpful context. But it’s important to remember that market volatility actually provides us with opportunities to be proactive. Our Investment Team is hard at work rebalancing portfolios, in most cases selling fixed income to purchase stocks at discounted prices and capturing tax loss harvesting opportunities where applicable. We know that these opportunities to be proactive allow us to produce superior outcomes over time, which strengthens clients’ financial plans and lowers the taxes they pay. 

Remain Focused

As was emphasized in our recent webinar with Morgan Housel, successful investing depends not just on what you own, but in how you react to the emotional challenges presented by market volatility. Negative volatility is stressful, and we anticipate it will continue throughout the remainder of the year. It’s important to keep in mind that newspaper headlines and market prognosticators will be using this opportunity to play into the fearful emotions that investors are feeling. Our advice is to look past the noise and remain focused on your long-term financial goals, which are the focal point of your financial plan, and remember that this plan has already been stress tested for conditions exactly like what we’re experiencing today. Volatility is certainly unnerving, but we expect that disciplined investors will be well rewarded in the years ahead.


  1. Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Effective Funds Rate (EFFR) for the time period of January 1, 2022 – September 28, 2022.
  2. Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Effective Funds Rate (EFFR) for the time period of January 1, 2022 – September 28, 2022. Calculations are based on end of day closing prices from the FactSet Futures Prices Database.

NOTE: The information provided in this article is intended for clients of Carlson Capital Management. We recommend that individuals consult with a professional adviser familiar with their particular situation for advice concerning specific investment, accounting, tax, and legal matters before taking any action.

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Published September 28, 2022 Topics: Behavioral Investing, Discipline, Inflation, Market Volatility

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