Research demonstrates that over the past 50 years, every U.S. recession may have been predicted ahead of time by using one simple indicator--the spread between short and long-term government bonds. Usually, long-term bonds offer higher yields than short-term bonds due to the additional risk that an investor assumes when buying bonds with longer maturities. However, every once in a while the dynamic flips, where short-term government bonds offer higher yields than long-term government bonds. This ... [Continue Reading]
Articles and resources related to Economy.
Opportunities are everywhere, if you know where to look. Our investment team is constantly looking for opportunities in your portfolio, both to add value and to reduce risk. The strong market rally in 2017 presented us with numerous opportunities to "tend the garden" of our clients' portfolios and make adjustments where need be. The most significant opportunity that has emerged over the past year is the growth in our clients' stock positions, which has shifted the mix of stocks and bonds ... [Continue Reading]
The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its largest decline in history on Monday, February 5--dropping 1,175 points! The headlines practically wrote themselves and were too exciting not to print. This was the largest single day decline in history, as long as we’re measuring in points and not percentages. By that measurement, Monday's drop wasn’t even the biggest decline in this decade. In addition, the 4.6% slide wasn’t significant enough to register within the top 20 daily declines and, of course, ... [Continue Reading]
Memories of the global financial crisis still weigh heavily on the minds of many investors. From October 2007 to March of 2009, the S&P 500 lost 55%, creating the greatest market downturn since the Great Depression. For investors who maintained a disciplined approach however, this memory is far less painful, as the S&P 500 has not only fully recovered its losses, but has produced nearly 100% gains. Today's recommended reading article, "You Just Doubled Your Money if You Invested at the ... [Continue Reading]
A combination of a weakening U.S. dollar and a decline in the U.S. consumer savings rate has driven corporate profits to all-time highs. This record-breaking earnings season has seen notable technology firms such as Apple and Facebook produce great earnings reports--but, it is notable that the record hasn't been achieved by a select few large companies. When we look at the S&P 500, more companies have been beating earnings and sales estimates than at any time in the past decade. As Jack ... [Continue Reading]