What a difference a year can make. Last April, we were discussing the uncertainty and unprecedented events of the early pandemic. The daily headlines seemed to rotate between record unemployment claims, increasing infection rates, a locked down economy, and a wildly volatile stock market. In contrast, our attention today is focused on millions of new jobs being added to payrolls, ever-higher vaccination rates, an economy that is opening up, and one of the strongest one-year stock market returns ... [Continue Reading]
Articles and resources related to Economy.
The American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 has been signed into law by President Biden. The $1.9 trillion bill includes increased funding for COVID-19 vaccination programs and testing, state and local governments for economic relief, K–12 and higher education schools to assist with re-opening, and certain industries, such as restaurants and airlines, that have been hit especially hard by COVID-19. The bill also includes several temporary, but significant, tax-relief provisions, which we highlight ... [Continue Reading]
Reflecting on a year gone by is often, at least to some extent, an exercise in revisionist history. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing; many of the differences between our memories and experiences are minor and inconsequential. In some cases, the variations in these realities can help us persevere and move out of the past and into future endeavors. But as investors, revising the memories of the past can be problematic and potentially hinder future success. Behavioral finance is the study of ... [Continue Reading]
Our recommended reading today is a throwback to March 27, 2019, when we published Why We Won’t Panic Because the Yield Curve Inverted (And Neither Should You). In that post, we shared a number of reasons why we advised against reading into a yield curve inversion too deeply. One reason we cited was that while a yield curve inversion had a strong track record of predicting recessions in the U.S. over the past 60 years, the evidence internationally was less convincing. Another reason ... [Continue Reading]
Research demonstrates that over the past 50 years, every U.S. recession may have been predicted ahead of time by using one simple indicator--the spread between short and long-term government bonds. Usually, long-term bonds offer higher yields than short-term bonds due to the additional risk that an investor assumes when buying bonds with longer maturities. However, every once in a while the dynamic flips, where short-term government bonds offer higher yields than long-term government bonds. This ... [Continue Reading]