Inflation risk is back in vogue among market commentators these days, thanks to the uncertainty surrounding the future path of the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent economic recovery. Some pundits worry about the 70% increase in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet since March of last year, while others are more concerned that the U.S. budget deficit tripled in 2020, to $3.3 trillion. If the economy recovers strongly, the theory goes that all of this cheap money floating around could ... [Continue Reading]
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On the topic of interest rates, the commonly held view is that we have nowhere to go but up. That line of thinking leads many people to believe that bonds will only lose money in the future and that they have no place in a diversified portfolio anymore. However, if the last several years have taught us anything, it’s that interest rates can indeed go lower from here. Just two years ago we would have scoffed at the idea of negative interest rates, yet nearly 30% of worldwide government bonds now ... [Continue Reading]