Our recommended reading today is a throwback to March 27, 2019, when we published Why We Won’t Panic Because the Yield Curve Inverted (And Neither Should You). In that post, we shared a number of reasons why we advised against reading into a yield curve inversion too deeply. One reason we cited was that while a yield curve inversion had a strong track record of predicting recessions in the U.S. over the past 60 years, the evidence internationally was less convincing. Another reason ... [Continue Reading]
Articles and resources related to Market Conditions.
Index funds are receiving increased attention, mostly centered on the virtues of low-cost and broadly diversified vehicles for accessing stock and bond markets. In a competition in which one side’s success is another side’s loss, it’s not surprising to hear active managers railing against passive investing. Some claim that increased usage of index funds is distorting market prices. The Carlson Capital Management team firmly believes that markets continue to work and investors can still rely on ... [Continue Reading]
Summer is here once again with its ubiquitous combinations like mosquitoes and barbeques, lightning and thunder, swimming pools and sunshine. One exciting pairing for 2019 that has been far less common, in fact it hasn’t happened since the early 1990s, is an American League-leading Minnesota Twins and equity market all-time highs. As a lifelong Minnesota sports fan, and having experienced what felt like greatness coming up short one too many times, it’s easy to be conditioned to feel that the ... [Continue Reading]
Research demonstrates that over the past 50 years, every U.S. recession may have been predicted ahead of time by using one simple indicator--the spread between short and long-term government bonds. Usually, long-term bonds offer higher yields than short-term bonds due to the additional risk that an investor assumes when buying bonds with longer maturities. However, every once in a while the dynamic flips, where short-term government bonds offer higher yields than long-term government bonds. This ... [Continue Reading]
The S&P 500, an index that tracks the performance of large U.S. company stocks, has delivered 9.99% average annual returns since 1926 1 . We know that this terrific performance is compensation to investors for taking on risk, and that returns weren’t achieved in a slow and steady manner. Investors don’t have to look too far back in time to remember the poor performance of the tech bubble in the early 2000s or the financial crisis of 2008. In fact, the 10-year annual return of the S&P ... [Continue Reading]