Our recommended reading today is a throwback to March 27, 2019, when we published Why We Won’t Panic Because the Yield Curve Inverted (And Neither Should You). In that post, we shared a number of reasons why we advised against reading into a yield curve inversion too deeply. One reason we cited was that while a yield curve inversion had a strong track record of predicting recessions in the U.S. over the past 60 years, the evidence internationally was less convincing. Another reason ... [Continue Reading]
Articles and resources related to Bond Portfolio.
Research demonstrates that over the past 50 years, every U.S. recession may have been predicted ahead of time by using one simple indicator--the spread between short and long-term government bonds. Usually, long-term bonds offer higher yields than short-term bonds due to the additional risk that an investor assumes when buying bonds with longer maturities. However, every once in a while the dynamic flips, where short-term government bonds offer higher yields than long-term government bonds. This ... [Continue Reading]
The adoption, delaying, and reconsidering of the Department of Labor’s Fiduciary Rule has been a recent hot topic in the financial services industry. Much discussion and controversy has been swirling about whether the Rule would be adopted in its original form, modified in some way, or completely scrapped. As most of you know, CCM is firmly grounded in the fiduciary standard of care. If you missed Greg Carlson’s recent article on this topic, I encourage you to read, “What the Fiduciary Rule ... [Continue Reading]
The economic policies being proposed by President -Elect Trump are not what we would traditionally expect from a Republican heading to the White House. Mr. Trump’s proposals, if enacted, would rely on increased borrowing to fund economic expansion, most notably on infrastructure and defense spending. Markets have quickly priced in the rising probability of this type of deficit spending by adjusting expectations for future growth in GDP and inflation. As such, bond prices have fallen and interest ... [Continue Reading]
On the topic of interest rates, the commonly held view is that we have nowhere to go but up. That line of thinking leads many people to believe that bonds will only lose money in the future and that they have no place in a diversified portfolio anymore. However, if the last several years have taught us anything, it’s that interest rates can indeed go lower from here. Just two years ago we would have scoffed at the idea of negative interest rates, yet nearly 30% of worldwide government bonds now ... [Continue Reading]