What a difference a year can make. Last April, we were discussing the uncertainty and unprecedented events of the early pandemic. The daily headlines seemed to rotate between record unemployment claims, increasing infection rates, a locked down economy, and a wildly volatile stock market. In contrast, our attention today is focused on millions of new jobs being added to payrolls, ever-higher vaccination rates, an economy that is opening up, and one of the strongest one-year stock market returns ... [Continue Reading]
Articles and resources related to Bond Portfolio.
Last week, we provided historical insight into equity market valuations and the implication for future returns in investor portfolios. This week, we’re shining a light on the "shock absorber" within client portfolios—fixed income. A popular topic of conversation in recent years has been whether investors should abandon traditional fixed income investments for higher-yielding investments or pursue new, alternative investment strategies instead. Our philosophy at CCM has always been that fixed ... [Continue Reading]
Our recommended reading today is a throwback to March 27, 2019, when we published Why We Won’t Panic Because the Yield Curve Inverted (And Neither Should You). In that post, we shared a number of reasons why we advised against reading into a yield curve inversion too deeply. One reason we cited was that while a yield curve inversion had a strong track record of predicting recessions in the U.S. over the past 60 years, the evidence internationally was less convincing. Another reason ... [Continue Reading]
Research demonstrates that over the past 50 years, every U.S. recession may have been predicted ahead of time by using one simple indicator--the spread between short and long-term government bonds. Usually, long-term bonds offer higher yields than short-term bonds due to the additional risk that an investor assumes when buying bonds with longer maturities. However, every once in a while the dynamic flips, where short-term government bonds offer higher yields than long-term government bonds. This ... [Continue Reading]
The adoption, delaying, and reconsidering of the Department of Labor’s Fiduciary Rule has been a recent hot topic in the financial services industry. Much discussion and controversy has been swirling about whether the Rule would be adopted in its original form, modified in some way, or completely scrapped. As most of you know, CCM is firmly grounded in the fiduciary standard of care. If you missed Greg Carlson’s recent article on this topic, I encourage you to read, “What the Fiduciary Rule ... [Continue Reading]