Reflecting on a year gone by is often, at least to some extent, an exercise in revisionist history. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing; many of the differences between our memories and experiences are minor and inconsequential. In some cases, the variations in these realities can help us persevere and move out of the past and into future endeavors. But as investors, revising the memories of the past can be problematic and potentially hinder future success. Behavioral finance is the study of ... [Continue Reading]
Articles and resources related to Market Conditions.
Many market commentators are clamoring over the recent performance of markets as they respond to positive vaccine news and clarity around the outcome of our presidential election. These events have driven stock markets higher, notably small value stocks. Using Russell index data, we’ve seen small value companies rise 23.6% from October 1 through November 30, while large growth stocks have risen by 6.5%. 1 This outperformance of small value by 17.1% over such a short period has commentators ... [Continue Reading]
As the chart below shows, 2020’s second-quarter rise in equity market performance was as dramatic as the previous quarter’s decline. With plenty of bumps along the way, the S&P 500 is now up more than 40% from the bottom on March 23. 1 If we view these recent extreme market events as isolated time periods, we can see the sharp contrast between the first two quarters of 2020 (Chart 1, below). These quarters were truly “tail events.” Q1 produced the fifth worst return, and Q2 ... [Continue Reading]
The events of the past quarter hold no superlative or adjective strong enough to capture the disruption and change that many are experiencing. What would have been hyperbole just days or weeks earlier, was quickly becoming our reality. During the past two months, we’ve been introduced to many new terms and experiences like social distancing, sheltering-in-place, and virtual hang outs with friends and family. What was once saved for extreme snow days in Minnesota, distance learning, is now just ... [Continue Reading]
As investors, every single one of us is prone to a range of emotions during periods of market volatility: fear, anxiety, optimism, greed, regret, and more. We’re not alone in this experience; there are millions of investors going through these same emotions with us each and every day. The incredible reality of the market is that no one precisely knows what the future holds, when the stock market will bottom out, or what the ultimate economic and human impact will be of the COVID-19 ... [Continue Reading]